Thursday, January 31, 2013

This worked last time

so here we go: The 49ers are going to win this game, and it's not going to be close.

Before the Falcons game I was nervous about how confident I was that the 49ers were better, then the Falcons led 17-0 and I was wondering why I even bother trying to understand football. Then Colin Kaepernick. I'm even more confident about this game, and not all that nervous about that confidence.

Speaking logically, the 49ers are not just better in every measurable category, they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Ravens. The Ravens' offense is not at all sophisticated. You stop the deep ball, you stop the running game. As Nate broke down in his comment, the 49ers do both. The Ravens do not have the talent in the passing game that the Falcons have, so the 49ers will not have nearly as much trouble adjusting to them. The 49ers win the matchups across the board when they are on defense.

I can't break down the 49ers' offense any better than Nate did- the 49ers present so many challenges to the Ravens that there is no possible way the Ravens will be able to stop them. It would take the kind of fluke that nobody can predict to sink their offense.

The only thing that would give me pause is if the 49ers had Falcons-itis and spent the whole week celebrating their previous victory. They didn't. They are LASER FOCUSED on this game. They're locked in their hotel room and in bed asleep before curfew. They will not come out flat, this will not be another Vikings game or Rams game.

When you add everything up you get a result just like the last time the 49ers were here: a clearly superior team that is completely focused on their objective going up against a great story who's just happy to be there. That's maybe discounting the Ravens too much- John Harbaugh isn't Bobby Ross and Flacco isn't Stan Humphries. But on balance, I'm expecting the outcome to be similar. I will be surprised if this is a close game, and will be completely stunned if the 49ers lose. If they lose, it will be because something insanely crazy happened. They will not lose this game on merit.