This won't happen

but if the 49ers trade up and select Tavon Austin, I will run naked screaming through the snow that is still on the ground where I live.

Schedule

So the 2013 schedule is out. One thing jumped out at me: the 49ers have exactly 2 games starting at 10 AM Pacific time. 5 Prime-time games, and only 2 games scheduled on the eastern seaboard add up to 14 games starting either at night or at a normal time. That is fantastic. Looking at the strength of the opponents never means anything at this time of year, but seeing that only 2 of their games are starting early is something that actually makes a difference. Oh, and those 2 early starts are against the Jags and Bucs. Again, maybe those teams will be better this season, but I'd certainly rather that than, say, the Pats and Falcons or something.

Rooting for a good team pays off sometimes.

Off-season check in vol 1- The One Where I Bitch About the Media (again)

Hey guys, I don't know if you've heard, but there's an ARMS RACE IN THE NFC WEST!! It's NUCLEAR!

Here's what I want to know: do these guys all get together in a room and decide on what the narrative is going to be? Do they not know that doing a simple google search for "NFC West arms race" would return hits from websites spanning the US from Seattle to LA to Florida to Minnesota to New York? Do they not care? Are they really that lazy?

If I was getting paid to write, I would really feel an obligation to give my readers their money's worth. I would feel like I needed to approach a story from an angle that few people thought of. What I wouldn't do write something that a person could read literally ANYWHERE ELSE on the internet, or see on any channel on TV, or in any newspaper. What's the point? Why write anything at all if you're going to write the exact same story that everyone else has already thought of?

I'm probably breaking my own rule here: anyone who's not *in* the media makes hay bashing the way the media operates. I may not be bringing anything new to the table with this argument, but I'm not getting PAID TO WRITE ABOUT THIS. And yet my style mimics those who are. If I were a musician, and some dummy in the middle of North Dakota could sit at his laptop and imitate me to the note, that would be slightly unsettling. That's not the case, though. As badly as I want to, I can't sound as good as Ben Gibbard, because he's more talented than I am. I don't feel like any writer writing any article on the NFC West "arms race" is doing something that I couldn't do. And I'm a moron. That's really frustrating.

Apart from the fact that they're all writing the same thing, there's also the little matter of that same thing being WRONG. Every. Single. Year. How many teams who participate in "arms races" in the off-season win Super Bowls? Or even make the playoffs? Let's quickly calculate the big off-season spenders in Free Agency the last few years:

2012: Bills. Bills record last season: 6-10 (missed playoffs)

2011: Eagles. We know how that went: 8-8 (missed playoffs)

2010: Bears, Dolphins. Records that season: 11-5 (lost in NFC Champ), 7-9 (missed playoffs)\

2009: Redskins. Record: 4-12 (missed playoffs)

1 playoff team in the last 4 years. That Bears team was the outlier. That's what facts tell us. But you know what the stories were in each of those off-seasons? There was no restraint to be found. Each of those big-spending teams were automatic division-winners, Super Bowl favorites.

At what point does big spending cease to be a story? Is there any less of a story in criticizing these moves? Why is there no reasonable voice out in the mainstream saying "yes, this team is spending a lot of money and is getting players that at first glance make their team a lot better, but there is very little track record of this strategy actually working in recent history". I would find that interesting if I didn't already know it. Maybe it would temper my expectations if I were a fan of a team that was free spending. Maybe it would make me a little more well-informed about the decisions I want my team making.

This season the NFL has finally figured it out- Super Bowls are not won by writing big checks in February. The Dolphins and Vikings are going to find that out the hard way- the vast majority of the NFL is already on board with this, but still the stories persist. The Seahawks and 49ers are extremely smart, competitive teams who are making very very good decisions this season- adding value while not sacrificing their long-term outlook.

That would be an interesting story. But what is the story? "IT'S AN ARMS RACE! WOW LOOK SHINY SHINY TOYS WOW!!!". The media collectively is the dog from "Up", unable to focus on anything but the simplest angle to any story. Not willing to burn a single calorie to approach the story from a different viewpoint. Trading for Anquan Boldin isn't a smart move that gives the 49ers what they were missing last season, it's a response to the Seahawks getting Harvin. The 49ers don't care about getting better, they care about one-upping their rival. The Seahawks only signed Winfield because the 49ers got Nnamdi. It's certainly not because they want to make their defensive backfield one of the best in the league. Let's be sure to not analyze this from a position that make sense, but rather from one that makes us look like slobbering morons who are completely incapable of grasping even the simplest of strategic outlooks.

The whole thing makes me sick. It makes following sports a chore: you have to mute ESPN or NFLN for the segments between news and highlights because they are so loud wrong all the time. There is no value to their opinions. You have to slog through mountains of crap on the internet to find the guys who don't interject the bull crap narratives into everything they write. Consider this post my Peter Finch rant. I'm tired of this crap.

All that said, Nnamdi was a great signing. Pretty excited about him.

Wahooooooo!

I'm sad to see Alex go, but we all knew he wasn't coming back. I can't believe they got basically another 1st rounder for him plus another high-ish pick next season barring some kind of injury.

It's a great deal for both sides. The niners save money, give Alex a place where he'll be the unquestioned starter, and gain unbelievable flexibility in the draft this season while getting a jump start on next year.

The chiefs get the perfect Andy Reid QB, someone who is not only more experienced but also better than anyone in this draft. I'm extremely excited to see Alex play in an Andy Reid offense. I'll be watching every single chiefs game next year.

An absolutely perfect sports trade- everyone involved benefits. This draft is going to be really fun.

They threw a fade

The most important play of their season was a pass that works maybe 15% of the time, a pass that they have not successfully completed even one time with Colin Kaepernick at QB. The Oline got blown up, yeah. But they had their best WR running a route that works 15% of the time that they have never completed. I will never get over that.

Forget the unbelievably stupid penalties that both cost them a first down on the first drive of the game and handed Baltimore the (deciding) extra 4 points after they had stopped them on 3rd down. Forget the fumble by James trying to turn a 0 yard gain into a 1 yard gain. Forget the HORRENDOUS interception, a pass that never should have been thrown and had no chance to be completed even if thrown perfectly. Forget the insane luck the Ravens had in the first half on plays like the blind-folded bomb to Boldin. Forget the inexcusable 108 kick yard return when they desperately needed a stop.

Forget all of that. Even with all of that, they had a chance to win the superbowl and THEY THREW A GODDAMN FADE PASS. I really don't know if I will ever forgive them for that, I know I will never forget it. That's the Kyle Williams play of this season. They threw a fade.

The worst thing about this game is I feel like the 49ers are better but couldn't get out of their own way. The penalties and turnovers were not forced, they were the kinds of things crappy teams do. I didn't get it. Maybe it was just the enormity of the stage or something, it was the worst possible time for them to decide to play like it was week 3 in Minnesota.

I give credit to the Ravens, they made plays when they had to, but I feel like the 49ers should have won that game. This offseason is going to really suck.

This worked last time

so here we go: The 49ers are going to win this game, and it's not going to be close.

Before the Falcons game I was nervous about how confident I was that the 49ers were better, then the Falcons led 17-0 and I was wondering why I even bother trying to understand football. Then Colin Kaepernick. I'm even more confident about this game, and not all that nervous about that confidence.

Speaking logically, the 49ers are not just better in every measurable category, they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Ravens. The Ravens' offense is not at all sophisticated. You stop the deep ball, you stop the running game. As Nate broke down in his comment, the 49ers do both. The Ravens do not have the talent in the passing game that the Falcons have, so the 49ers will not have nearly as much trouble adjusting to them. The 49ers win the matchups across the board when they are on defense.

I can't break down the 49ers' offense any better than Nate did- the 49ers present so many challenges to the Ravens that there is no possible way the Ravens will be able to stop them. It would take the kind of fluke that nobody can predict to sink their offense.

The only thing that would give me pause is if the 49ers had Falcons-itis and spent the whole week celebrating their previous victory. They didn't. They are LASER FOCUSED on this game. They're locked in their hotel room and in bed asleep before curfew. They will not come out flat, this will not be another Vikings game or Rams game.

When you add everything up you get a result just like the last time the 49ers were here: a clearly superior team that is completely focused on their objective going up against a great story who's just happy to be there. That's maybe discounting the Ravens too much- John Harbaugh isn't Bobby Ross and Flacco isn't Stan Humphries. But on balance, I'm expecting the outcome to be similar. I will be surprised if this is a close game, and will be completely stunned if the 49ers lose. If they lose, it will be because something insanely crazy happened. They will not lose this game on merit.

If you want to know what "It" is...

Just finished watching the NFL Network's "Sound FX" for the Niners / Falcons championship game. At the end of the segment, after the glorious victory, Colin Kaepernick shakes Matt Ryan's hand and says, "Just keep ballin' baby, you'll be all right".

That.is.what.I'm.talking.about. Started nine games, doesn't give a shit. It's like Joe Montana giving two shits about Ed "Too Tall" Jones in the '81 Championship game.

Before that progrum, I watched the 2011 Niners/Ravens Thanksgiving game on that ol' Sound FX. First off, Terrell Suggs is straight up funny. I lol'd twice when he was talking shit. His gums give me pause, but that is a funny dude. Second, Ray Rice is like that guy at the office who is always trying to prove how damn dedicated he is: ANNOYING.

Also, it was obvious the Niners ran out of steam in the late third quarter. And also: Joe Flacco is a giant douche.

But they couldn't even scare Alex Smith after a franchise record 8 or 9 sacks: imagine what a baller like CK can do against them.

If I'm JOHN, I'm not happy. Jim looked perturbed after that Thanksgiving game. Interestingly the Ravens players were saying to the Niners, " Great game, see you in the Super Bowl"...

Quick Comparison

Offense with Alex Smith at helm (9 Starts):

23.6 PPG
178 PYPG
170 RYPG

Offense with Colin Kaepernick at helm (9 Starts- including Playoff games):

28.5 PPG
224 PYPG
159 RYPG

Ok, there's not much surprising there. "The offense is better with Kaepernick at QB" isn't an earth-shattering statement. But they're scoring 5 more points per game, that's kind of insane. Averaging 4 TDs per game!! Over a full season that would be 456 points, which is late 80s/early 90s territory. Most of the guys on defense aren't going anywhere. They will get a draft pick for Alex Smith that will be decent.

They already have 3 3rd round picks next season, with no GLARING holes to fill. Another WR, another pass rusher, another defensive back, sure. But nothing that leaps out at you. Oh, and they have a top 5 coach whose assistants will all be returning, thanks to postseason success keeping them from interviewing with other teams before they filled their vacancies.

Man oh man. Whether or not they win the superbowl this year, you're looking at a team set up for for success for a really really long time. Nothing is guaranteed, and you obviously want to bank the ring, but it sure looks like we won't see this team win 5 games any time in the near future.

I, As Always, Am A Moron

Whew. Atlanta was tough in that game. I didn't think Jones or White would be much to worry about, since SF has done a decent job against downfield passes this year. Whoops. Jones is a friggen freak. In the first half their offense was playing a different game, they were basically just deciding how much time to let tick off the clock before they scored. But they couldn't run the ball, which hurt them in the long run.

The 49ers of Alex Smith would not have had a prayer at 17-0. It's amazing to watch Kaepernick- every time he has the ball, you get the feeling that points will be automatic. It takes some kind of mistake- a penalty, a drop, a missed protection, a missed FG (groan)- for them to not score points on a drive. That's amazing. He's amazing.

This team is so much fun to root for. At 17-0 I was worried, yeah. Visions of getting embarrassed in games of any importance in seasons gone by were dancing in my head. But this team is truly different, they are worthy of the praise they get. The defense didn't allow a single point in the 2nd half, and the offense (despite GIVING AWAY 10 points) came alive to startling effect. If Akers makes a chippy and Crabtree simply falls down at the one, there's a good chance this game ended up the way I thought it would. As it was, it was almost even more satisfying. Defense still IS important, so is running the ball. Atlanta's pass offense was breathtaking for most of the game, but being as one--dimensional as they were isn't sustainable. The 49ers were clearly the better team in the 2nd half, but as per usual this year, they had to make it interesting. That play by Bowman at the end was beauty.

WWL can kindly go EFF itself. Super Bowl bound baby! Read that again- SUPER BOWL BOUND! Go Ravens

Domination

From the site that projected the Niners would go 7-9 in 2012. This is a sweet analysis of the O-line in the Packers game:

San Francisco Clinic