OMFG

I just get home...and we're leading a game we should win 21-6???!??!?!? And on the goal line? WHO IS THIS TEAM??

Oh wait, they just epically failed on the goal-line. All is well, guys.

EDIT: SINCE WHEN DO REVERSES WORK????!?!?!?! WOOOOOOO

Old and Tired

Yes, the discussion about whether or not Nolan should be fired IS a tired one. However, a back-and-forth with Maiocco on his blog today got me thinking.

IF the 49ers do well this year (maybe even *GASP* make the playoffs), I think it's safe to assume that it's because the offense is massively improved over last year. We've already seen that it's quite a bit better over the first 2 games.

That situation, says Maiocco, will put a decision before ownership. Who means more to the franchise: Nolan or Martz?

Now, looking at it from the perspective of a jilted 49er fan who's watched all or parts of 90% of the games for the past 3 years, it's obvious that I want Nolan fired. I wanted him fired after last season. But I'm not going to do that. I'm going to put on my "objective, reasonable" cap and view this situation as an outsider.

In doing so, I see that the difference between this team and the team that went 5-11 last year is a new offensive coordinator, and a few new offensive players who were basically brought in by said coordinator. Let's face it- it's unlikely that Bruce or O'Sullivan would have been here without Martz.

The defense is largely unchanged, with the exception being the return of Manny Lawson, the same Manny Lawson who didn't play a single snap last week. A possible season-ending injury to Spencer would be the other change. Through 2 games, it's safe to say the defense is not performing like it did last year, but it is early.

What, exactly, has Mike Nolan done in his 3 years here to save his job if the team does well this season? I am actually asking this question objectively, and am going to try to answer it.

It must be said, the talent on this team is quite a lot better than the team Nolan and company took over in 2005. Back then, the only playmakers were Julian Peterson coming off injury, and Bryant Young. This was before most knew Gore was any good, Kevin Barlow was still the starter, and Brandon Lloyd was being looked to to be a number 1 WR target. (As an aside, I recently came accross a copy of madden 06 and checked out the 49ers roster- not pretty). And the defense...well Joselio Hanson? Derrick Johnston? Mike Adams? Ben Emmanuel? Yikes.

Now, we've got Patrick Willis, Frank Gore, Nate Clements, Micheal Lewis, Vernon Davis (?), and Bryant Johnson (?). There's some question marks for sure, but the talent is at least respectable at most positions.

However, in Nolan's 3 years in San Francisco, the 49ers are 0-8 and have been outscored by 146 points in games played on the east coast. Yes, those numbers are skewed by the 52-17 and 42-3 losses to Washington and Philadelphia in 2005, but last year they were 0-4 and outscored by 60 points. Yes, last year's team was terrible, but part of that was because Shaun Hill was sitting in favor of a guy in his late 30s who was not performing well. And who made that decision?

Quick note: In 2006, the one year under Mike Nolan when the 49ers were close to not having a losing record, they didn't play a single game on the east coast. In the other 2 disastrous years, they've played 4.

OK, I don't want to be too partisan here. But there's more bad news. As we all know, Nolan's teams have been hideous after bye-weeks, going 0-3 and getting outscored by 81 points. A caveat on this: all of those games were on the road. But that is still quite bad.

Let's look at scoring differential: in the 17 games the 49ers have won during Nolan's tenure, they've outscored their opponents 387-298, or 5.2 points/ game. In their 33 losses, they've been outscored 415-959, or 16.4 points/ game. If a team loses a game by 16 points, it's said to be a blowout. Over the last 3 years, the 49ers have, on average, been blown out 33 times. Yes, that's a misleading stat, but that's just the jaded fan sneaking in.

In 3 years, San Francisco has never beaten a team by more than 14 points. Not even the Houston Texans can say that, as they have five such games in the same time period. I don't think that's a meaningless stat, either. It shows that this team has been historically inept for quite an extended period.

Anyways, this whole post is sort of based on a theoretical season that hasn't happened yet. IF the 49ers do well this season, it will come in a year when the major personnel changes from a 5-11 team came through someone who was not Mike Nolan. It will be in a year when the offense was considerably better under a new coordinator, and a year in which Nolan was actually demoted. Nolan gets demoted, the team does better. I'm sorry, but jaded fan or not, that wouldn't be a hard decision to make.

Also: if the 49ers pull a "Nolan" and don't show up against a terrible Detroit team, I'm never watching them again.

Gameday Open Dead

God I love this team. They're so awesome at the game of football.

F*ck you, 49ers

How awful were the 49ers yesterday? How freaking bad will it get? Mike Nolan is completely incapable of preparing his team to play on Sundays. And this was at home!

First off, I would bet money that Mike Nolan never had his team practice short kickoffs, or ever even thought about them once in training camp. He prefers to put his players in a position where they can't succeed. Or, more accurately, he trains them wrong on purpose.

When your coaching philosophy tolerates spotting points to opposing teams early in the game (this is a CONSTANT theme that has yet to be corrected throughout these miserable Nolan years), how much more of the same will it take for ownership to fire the idiot with said coaching philosophy? (I am aware that ownership is a big part of the problem).

I can hear the pollyannas now:

Oooh, look, we outgained the Cardinals. (BFD look at TOP and GFY)

Give JT O'Sullivan a chance. He showed some promise. (I guess you didn't see the perfect Favre-like interception he threw? If he had tucked and slid the first down is his easily! And the fumbles...no wonder no one wanted this guy at QB

Hey, if you give up 5 turnovers, it's difficult to win. (I concur. Why is Zak Keasey on this team?)

Frank Gore looked great . (that's because he is great. Too bad Nolan can't figure out how to get his defense off the field on third and long, so Gore can do his thing.)

And it gets worse. The second half was unadulterated 49er fan torture. I guess it's no surprise that this team finds new ways to lose every year. I feel like the 49ers should compensate me for those 90 minutes in the second half that I will never get back. How in the hell do you tolerate getting absolutely manhandled by the Arizona Cardinals?

And if you thought the boring offenses of the last 4 years were bad, you're going to love the "no offense" of 2008.

Wasn't it two years ago Nolan talked about getting more physical players, so his team wouldn't be bullied by those big meanies from Arizona? (I know, I'm laughing, too). Epic fail, Nolan. 37 minutes. Those are Madden numbers.

Fire Mike Nolan. I know this means a Mike Martz-led 49ers, and I vomit a little at the thought, but Mike Nolan is the problem. The Niners were outhit, outplayed, and most definitely outcoached. Again.

GOOOOOOOOO JTOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (and predicitions)

Ok, so I admit it. I am almost completely flip-flopping on one Mr. John Thomas O'Sullivan. Do I think he's better than Alex Smith? No. Do I think he's better right here, right now than Alex Smith? Most definitely.

I don't understand my initial hatred of the guy; he's the kind of guy everyone should root for. A 6th round pick journeyman who's never quite caught on anywhere. He was even a niner fan as a kid! It sorta sounds like Jeff Garcia to me. Maybe O'Sullivan is the Garcia to Smith's Druckenmiller? No, that's a moronic thing to say. But still, why not pull for the guy? He's a great story!

The frustrating thing to me was that Smith got basically no first-team snaps in the offense, an offense that he needs to learn. However, even Mike Martz, the guy who lobbied for O'Sullivan, is suprised at how well J.T. is playing.

So here's what we hope for: O'Sullivan gets a few wins, then sustains a mildly serious but not in any way career threatening injury right around week 7, then Smith gets his chance to show what he's got before his possible final year here is up. I don't know about anyone else, but I do not want Smith walking away from the team having never had a chance to show his stuff this season, and from what I read, neither does McCloughan.

Meaningless Prediction Time!!!!!111!

I did this last year, and came up with 3-2 at the bye, and 10-6 for the season. ESPN has recently called me for a job opening, as I'm still better than anyone that works there *rimshot*

Anyways, the more sensible, practical me this year is looking at the schedule, and is seeing the following: 3- 5 at the bye, with wins against Arizona, Detroit, and Seattle at home. For the season, it's looking like a possible 8-8, but more likely 7-9, with wins probably coming against STL (either at home or in St. Louis, but I don't see a sweep), Buffalo, New York (FU Fav-rah), and Miami. The last game against Washington at home looks to be the game that makes the difference between yet another losing season or just a mediocre one.

Now the question becomes: is 8-8 or 7-9 good enough to save Nolan's job? Will he be fired? Will the offense out perform my ridiculously low expectations? Will Bryant Johnson make me look like a genius for drafting him in the 12th round in fantasy football? These and many more questions will be answered starting in THREE SHORT DAYS!!!!11!!1!!!1!!

ed note: I'm going to be out of town for week 1, so that sucks. I'll be back Sunday night and will hopefully be in a good mood, celebrating a nice victory over the Tardz. Have fun without me!11!!