So which is it?

To my mind, there are 3 ways this season can go from right now onward, and we'll see this Sunday how it all shall unfold:

1. Alex Smith resurrects his career and leads the team to a playoff berth.
The 49ers are the "where the hell did THEY come from???" team, and WE are finally the team that gets the endless breathless reports on how they've turned their season around and how great of a story it is to see Smith bounce back from a terrible start to his career.

Sunday's impact: A win over the Colts. If the 9ers win on Sunday, it will be because Alex Smith is the real deal. That will get everyone's attention in a right hurry.

Odds of happening: 5%. Let's be real- we're 49er fans. In the 00s, that means we get shit on and like it. No chance we end up being "that" team this year. Though I do love my boy crabs.

2. Alex Smith is merely "meh", and leads the team to another 7-9, 8-8ish type mediocre season. Everything we've seen in the last couple weeks and last couple years: sort of OK play from the defense, "meh" play from the offense, and enough stupid mental and coaching errors to just make them frustratingly close to being successful, and that keeps us coming back for more.

Sunday's impact: a close loss to the Colts. They get down fairly big (think last week), and are able to come back and make it a game, but they're never ACTUALLY in it. We've seen it many, many times before.

Odds of happening: 75%. By far the most likely outcome. I'm rooting for Smith to be sure, but forgive me if the last 4 years of watching this team have pretty much squeezed out any shred of optimism I may have had. Boy, it was fun to watch him on Sunday, but he was playing against vanilla defensive looks and not a guy I like to call "BOB SANDERS".

3. Alex Smith is an unmitigated disaster.

He plays terribly or even gets injured. The season spirals out of control and into a 5-11/6-10ish end. Plus side: we get 2 top 10 picks, thereby destroying our cap space for the near future. Wait, that's not good either.

Sunday's impact: a disastrous blowout loss on the level of the Atlanta game. There is no excuse for that to happen again, and if it does, then we know what we have on our hands- another season of bitter disappointment and disillusionment.

Odds of happening: 20%. I'm not sure I think this team is this bad, but there is definitely that chance floating around in the back of my head. I really think Smith looked excellent on Sunday, vanilla defenses or no, but there's a nagging thing in the back of my mind that makes me think we can't possibly expect anything other than disaster and blood and guts and destruction. Maybe it's the whole "I've been watching this team play football for 4 years" thing.

Houston, we have an offense.

Um, wow. I'm not really sure how to express what I just saw in words. Truly a tale of 2 teams.

In the first half it was Atlanta game part deaux- defense terrible, offense terrible, nobody could do anything. Also, Arnaz Battle needs to be cut. He does nothing that warrents keeping him on an NFL roster, and hasn't for at least 2 years now. With Crabtree, Morgan, Hill, and Jones, there is no reason for him to be here. He cannot field punts- I'm pretty sure I would do a better job than him, and I have a possibly broken thumb.

Alex Smith threw 3 touch down passes in one half. I'm going to let that sink in for a minute.

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OK? Alex Smith had 4 fewer fantasy points than TOM BRADY. In one half.

And yes, Houston didn't gameplan for Smith all week. But that was not injured Alex Smith. That wasn't "hasn't played football for 2 years" Smith that we saw in the preseason. That was a different player. Seriously. Forget the 3 TDs- they were great, but the way he LOOKED throwing them was spectacular.

He moved in the pocket. Alex Smith. Moved. In the pocket. To avoid defenders. He threw the ball on time. Alex Smith. Threw. The ball. On. Time. He fit it into tight spots. Seriously, go watch that 3rd TD to Davis. Since I started following this team, I haven't ever seen a 49ers QB make a throw like that.

Im not happy with this, though. This was a horribly coached game. It is completely unacceptable to look like this after you've had 2 weeks to prepare for an opponent- wrong packages, too many men on the field, stupid delay of game penalties, wasted timeouts, keeping Battle in as a punt returner when he has shown absolutely no proficiency in that department EVER in his career, etc.

Some of that can be attributed to the patchwork Oline and both Smith and Crabtree being on the field for the first time in a very long time. So in some respects I let it slide, but even in the first half the coaching was pretty bad.

It would have cured a lot of ills if that last drive had ended with points. Overall, I feel the less bad about this loss than I did after either of the other 2. The offense showed it's willing to make some changes once smith came in and that was refreshing. Smith looked really, REALLY good. The defense picked it up in the second half and played well.

If they can capture the way they played in the second half and bottle that up for the remaining games, they're a legit playoff team. I'm not totally sure they can, though. We'll have to see how Smith handles a defense that knows he's coming, and how the defense handles the best quarterback in the NFL. I'm expecting a 3-4 record after next week.

GO GIANTS!

Nate, you were 100% right

damn, I really thought we were gonna get to watch a good team finally. At least the first few weeks were fun, though. Back to the depressing mediocrity we know so well

WOW

IF ONLY SOMEBODY IN THE WORLD KNEW THAT IT WAS A FUCKING RETARDED FUCKING IDEA TO CUT A FUCKING PROFESSIONAL RETURN MAN FOR A DUMB SHIT WHO DOES NOTHING BUT FUMBLE FUCKING PUNTS.


HOLY SHIT I AM SO PISSED RIGHT NOW

The Difference

“I’m not going to apologize to the fans again, but the one thing that I want you to know after a game like yesterday, it’s a situation where you kind of sit back and go, ‘Wow, I didn’t really know that could happen again.’ And the thing I will say is this, this team will be a special team, this year will be a special year. It’s unfortunate as to what happened yesterday. As a staff, we did not do a good job preparing for a team (coming off) a bye week. But going forward, we will come back and we will get better and we will be a team for our fans to be proud of.”

Are those just words? Sure they are. But at this point, the only thing the coach of our team can offer us is words until they take the field again in 2 weeks. Do you know who NEVER EVER not once EVER used words like this? Mike Nolan. It's true that we were all giddy and exuberant about that moron once- I remember in the old furom days I was drawing parallels to his first couple years and Bill Walsh's for god's sake.

But if there's one thing I remember about Nolan it's that he never took responsibility for anything. After a blowout loss like this there is no way he would have had a player go up to the podium and steal 5 minutes of his spotlight to apologize for an unbelieveably moronic error. There is NO WAY he would have admitted the coaching staff wasn't properly prepared! Seriously! Can you imagine Nolan saying anything like that, even when it was BLATANTLY OBVIOUS to the rest of us?

Yes, yes, bashing Nolan again. I do it all the time. But my point isn't just to say "hahahahha Sing's better than Nolan derrrrrrrrr", but simply to say that Singletary made my faith stronger that this is truly a different team, and that this week's game was truly an aberration, not something to expect from them.

Nolan never really acknowledged that he made mistakes, so it was impossible for him to learn from them. Thus we got a rotating vortex of suck that never really improved. Sing looks to be very introspective and fully able to admit when he or the staff screwed up, he holds himself accountable just like he held Davis and Bly accountable.

Now, like has been brought up, if the team just isn't that good (a distinct possibility), then all the pep talks and responsibility-taking in the world isn't going to give them more talent. BUT, if Sunday's performance was a result of a conspiracy of problems (unprepared, overconfident, mental errors, etc), then I have faith those problems won't repeat themselves. I'm just looking forward to seeing how they respond after living with this loss for 2 weeks. I think it may be a pleasant surprise for us.

The Silver Lining

October 2nd, 1994. Week 5. A humiliating home blowout loss against a so-so team drops the 49ers to 3-2. Is this sounding familiar?

No, this team is not the same team that had Jerry Rice and Steve Young. But here's the point: the team we saw on the field today was NOT the 2009 49ers. Know how I know that? Because I've been watching them play this season. Yes, they looked flat. They looked like they looked for the past 7 years, but the difference between those years and this year is that this year, this performance is out of character for this team.

Are they going to win 10 in a row like they did in 94? Highly unlikely. The reason I bring that game up is because it shows that even an all-time great team can have a week where they just utterly fail to show up in any facet of the game.

The sting and embarrassment of what we just witnessed should not taint the rest of the season- this is not Mike Nolan's 49ers. Singletary will not allow this to happen again. Sure, I thought he wouldn't allow it in the first place, but you better believe he's going to make the changes necessary to succeed. He has earned my trust with the decisions he's made since taking the team over, and I won't let one week out of 16 completely destroy that trust. We as niner fans have been burned so many times recently that our base instinct is to think the sky is falling after a showing like this, but I'm not going to do that today.

In 2 weeks we take the field against a pretty good team, but with the added strength of a pro-bowl running back and a young, dynamic wide receiver that could stretch the field and make some plays.

I think our guys maybe bought into their own hype just a little bit too much this last week, and maybe started taking the season for granted. Well, last time Singletary coached a blowout, his team came out absolutely inspired 2 weeks afterward and came within 1 yard of blowing up the division. The sky isn't falling- our guys got humbled today, and they sure as hell won't be taking any games for granted from here on out.

Is this 2005 or what?

Pitiful. The defense has completely collapsed. This reminds me of the some of the blowout losses of the past few seasons. Completely disgusted.

This is what you eventually get with a team that has zero margin for error. A couple of turnovers and . . . boom! . . . Mike Nolan football all over again.

This is also why that Vikings loss was so devastating. The 49ers really needed that win. After today, in all likelihood, they will be only 1/2 game up on the Cardinals. I'll pick the Cardinals next week against Seattle. The next time the 49ers play a game, they're going to be tied for first place. You can make fun of the Cardinals all you want, they went to the Super Bowl last season and proved that they can beat good teams and go on a run. The 49ers have proved fucking nothing. They are no longer favored to win the division, or make the playoffs.

Now they have a wicked schedule coming out, in which they could easily lose quite a lot of games over the next two months. This team is back to square one as far as I'm concerned.

Ridiculous, glowing optimism

From me? NEVER!

The way this whole Crabtree thing was handled just renews my faith in the direction this organization is going 100 times over. They stuck to their guns, waited it out, and in the end got pretty much what they wanted: the best WR in last year's draft, and at a price that was fair for where he was picked.

Scot and Paraag look like they are the real deals. They know what it is they're doing and they do it soooo freaking well. Obviously it would have been nicer if it had gotten done sooner, but I really feel good about the way this was handled. It doesn't give me that "oh my god we totally screwed that up" feeling I've gotten so many times before from watching Brian Sabean operate.

And for everyone that thinks Crabtree is a "diva", from everything he's said in interviews it doesn't even appear that he's on VD's level, let alone TO. I'm pretty sure Sing will be able to handle the guy. I can't wait for the Texans game.

Update: here's some more info on the contract

Update update: I also now get to bust this baby out in public without embarrassment (had it since May):

Obligatory Crabtree and why I don't miss Mike Nolan

Yeah, Matt's been dropping hints on twitter and his blog that the deal will probably be done today. Sure, it's exciting, but anyone who thought he was sitting out the whole year is a moron. Maybe he'll get in on one or two plays against Atlanta, but this will be a BIG help for those killer games right after the bye. Nice timing, Micheal, now go catch TDs for us.

Anyways, not much else to say on that matter so: due to Denver's recent OK performances against sub-standard competition, some people are already speculating that the performance of Mike Nolan's defense could be setting him up for another head coaching gig next year.

Now, I know that nobody reading this is stupid enough to think that Nolan would be a good coach. But, I recently stumbled upon a video clip that sums up exactly WHY Nolan will never ever be a good head coach in the National Football League (/schlereth). Enjoy:




Of particular note: notice the way Davis treats Nolan, and, more importantly, Nolan's reaction. He stands there with his hands on his hips after repeatedly saying "get back here" as Davis walks away, completely ignoring him.

Wow. I wonder why Davis was such a diva before this year? If I could get away with acting like that, I probably would too. After I saw this, what Singletary did in the seattle blowout last year gained infinitely more respect for me. Just imagine what that meant to the other guys on the team to finally see the head coach step up and take charge like that. Small wonder the team looks so much better now with a guy like Singletary leading them.

And thus we reach the point: being a head coach in football isn't about knowledge of offense or defense. It isn't even all THAT much about game management, though they do have some responsibility in that area.

It's about surrounding yourself with the right people, and, most importantly, being able to manage your team effectively. If I'm playing for Nolan and I see Davis acting that way without repercussions, that would seriously fuck with the chemistry on my team. And if the team has resentment for the head coach, there's no way they're going to be successful.

So go ahead, rest of the league. Get suckered in by Denver's defensive turnaround. The rest of us will smile and nod knowingly at your future inevitable demise.

Hi Packers Fans

Did you enjoy that bullshit taunting penalty as much as I did? Because I sure enjoyed the eerily similar Shawntae Spencer penalty last week in the Metrodome. What a fucking joke call. We can just call it the Favre courtesy call. It'll be our thing. Just kidding: I hate you, Packer fan.

Yup, they're for real.

Was that first quarter (or even first half) pretty? Nope, not at all. But once again, they pulled an anti-Nolan: they capitalized on the other team's mistakes and bounced back from a poor start to put the other team away.

This defense is amazing. Sure, the rams are terrible, but oh my lord, they are a swarming group of animals out there. Once again Jackson was shut down, and they scored TWO touchdowns! What in the world? Also, this was the first 49ers shutout since 2001. Think about that. Wow.

The offense still worries me, but not as much as it might worry some others. When Raye opens the tap a little bit, the offense shows it does have enough talent to make some plays. I'm not real sure why he doesn't open it up more often, but whatever.

Here's to hoping Frank's ankle heals REAL quick, because while he may be a decent backup, coffee is NOT a long-term solution as a starter. Dude looked pretty brutal on some of those runs.

All in all this was just a plain ol fun day. Wasn't it nice to be on the other side of this kind of game for once?

Also, if you want to be pissed off, just think about the fact that we could easily be 4-0 right now with a 2.5 game lead in the division while being 3-0 in said division. Oh well.

Jake Locker fan club starts here

Wow, this guy looks like Tom Brady. I made a post last year hoping we got Crabtree, and damn- let's use that Panthers pick to get this kid. He looks special.

I'm starting to hate Jimmy Raye

Fuck the heck?

Earlier today I asked 49ers offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye on whether he believes in using four-receiver sets. The 49ers have not put four wideouts on the field at the same time this season. And they use three receivers sparingly.

"It would stress us tremendously to have double open edges and four wide receivers and no threat to run the ball and put that kind of pass-rush burden on our offensive line and on the quarterback," Raye said. "I think we would be entering into foreign territory at a point where we don't need to.

I'm sorry guys, I thought we were rooting for an NFL team here, apparently we've been rooting
for an offensive coordinator who is scared to run anything more than a pop-warner offense.

Are you kidding me with this? "it would stress us tremendously" to have a 4 WR set, something every goddamned team in the NFL can manage without the entire world collapsing in on the stadium in which they are running said formation.

This theory of "OMG! BUT THERE'S NO RUNNING BACK ON THE FIELD OMGOMGOMGOMGOMG WHAT WILL WE DOOOO?????" is so retarded I can't even believe it came out of the lips of another human being. So he doesn't think it's possible to operate an offense without a "threat of running the ball", but it's fine to run an offense with absolutely no threat of a pass? Yup, makes perfect sense.


"Now if it's for some cosmetic purpose, to make somebody feel better, we could go spread out everybody and throw it all over the lot, but that's not what we do. We have the ability to do that if for some reason -- injury or a situation dictated that -- we have that package."

Good to know, Jimmy. Good to know that we could do it, but we're bloody well not going to try anything new! Because the offense has sure been humming on all cylinders when you run out 1 WR sets and slam the RB right into a pile.

And, of course, he's got a lot to go on, since when Shaun Hill was in an offense with a lot of 3 and 4 WR sets last year he threw for -3920 yards, no TDs and 35 interceptions. He was also sacked a league-record 334508473 times and eventually just started falling into the fetal position every time he dropped back, as you can see in this file footage from a year ago:





Please, Jimmy Raye, do not fuck this up. I want to see one of my teams in the playoffs for the first time since 2002. For the love of god, the division is yours for the taking. You have the personnel, you lost your star RB, USE THE GODDAMNED PERSONNEL TO THEIR FULLEST, YOU MORON.