This worked last time

so here we go: The 49ers are going to win this game, and it's not going to be close.

Before the Falcons game I was nervous about how confident I was that the 49ers were better, then the Falcons led 17-0 and I was wondering why I even bother trying to understand football. Then Colin Kaepernick. I'm even more confident about this game, and not all that nervous about that confidence.

Speaking logically, the 49ers are not just better in every measurable category, they are leaps and bounds ahead of the Ravens. The Ravens' offense is not at all sophisticated. You stop the deep ball, you stop the running game. As Nate broke down in his comment, the 49ers do both. The Ravens do not have the talent in the passing game that the Falcons have, so the 49ers will not have nearly as much trouble adjusting to them. The 49ers win the matchups across the board when they are on defense.

I can't break down the 49ers' offense any better than Nate did- the 49ers present so many challenges to the Ravens that there is no possible way the Ravens will be able to stop them. It would take the kind of fluke that nobody can predict to sink their offense.

The only thing that would give me pause is if the 49ers had Falcons-itis and spent the whole week celebrating their previous victory. They didn't. They are LASER FOCUSED on this game. They're locked in their hotel room and in bed asleep before curfew. They will not come out flat, this will not be another Vikings game or Rams game.

When you add everything up you get a result just like the last time the 49ers were here: a clearly superior team that is completely focused on their objective going up against a great story who's just happy to be there. That's maybe discounting the Ravens too much- John Harbaugh isn't Bobby Ross and Flacco isn't Stan Humphries. But on balance, I'm expecting the outcome to be similar. I will be surprised if this is a close game, and will be completely stunned if the 49ers lose. If they lose, it will be because something insanely crazy happened. They will not lose this game on merit.

If you want to know what "It" is...

Just finished watching the NFL Network's "Sound FX" for the Niners / Falcons championship game. At the end of the segment, after the glorious victory, Colin Kaepernick shakes Matt Ryan's hand and says, "Just keep ballin' baby, you'll be all right".

That.is.what.I'm.talking.about. Started nine games, doesn't give a shit. It's like Joe Montana giving two shits about Ed "Too Tall" Jones in the '81 Championship game.

Before that progrum, I watched the 2011 Niners/Ravens Thanksgiving game on that ol' Sound FX. First off, Terrell Suggs is straight up funny. I lol'd twice when he was talking shit. His gums give me pause, but that is a funny dude. Second, Ray Rice is like that guy at the office who is always trying to prove how damn dedicated he is: ANNOYING.

Also, it was obvious the Niners ran out of steam in the late third quarter. And also: Joe Flacco is a giant douche.

But they couldn't even scare Alex Smith after a franchise record 8 or 9 sacks: imagine what a baller like CK can do against them.

If I'm JOHN, I'm not happy. Jim looked perturbed after that Thanksgiving game. Interestingly the Ravens players were saying to the Niners, " Great game, see you in the Super Bowl"...

Quick Comparison

Offense with Alex Smith at helm (9 Starts):

23.6 PPG
178 PYPG
170 RYPG

Offense with Colin Kaepernick at helm (9 Starts- including Playoff games):

28.5 PPG
224 PYPG
159 RYPG

Ok, there's not much surprising there. "The offense is better with Kaepernick at QB" isn't an earth-shattering statement. But they're scoring 5 more points per game, that's kind of insane. Averaging 4 TDs per game!! Over a full season that would be 456 points, which is late 80s/early 90s territory. Most of the guys on defense aren't going anywhere. They will get a draft pick for Alex Smith that will be decent.

They already have 3 3rd round picks next season, with no GLARING holes to fill. Another WR, another pass rusher, another defensive back, sure. But nothing that leaps out at you. Oh, and they have a top 5 coach whose assistants will all be returning, thanks to postseason success keeping them from interviewing with other teams before they filled their vacancies.

Man oh man. Whether or not they win the superbowl this year, you're looking at a team set up for for success for a really really long time. Nothing is guaranteed, and you obviously want to bank the ring, but it sure looks like we won't see this team win 5 games any time in the near future.

I, As Always, Am A Moron

Whew. Atlanta was tough in that game. I didn't think Jones or White would be much to worry about, since SF has done a decent job against downfield passes this year. Whoops. Jones is a friggen freak. In the first half their offense was playing a different game, they were basically just deciding how much time to let tick off the clock before they scored. But they couldn't run the ball, which hurt them in the long run.

The 49ers of Alex Smith would not have had a prayer at 17-0. It's amazing to watch Kaepernick- every time he has the ball, you get the feeling that points will be automatic. It takes some kind of mistake- a penalty, a drop, a missed protection, a missed FG (groan)- for them to not score points on a drive. That's amazing. He's amazing.

This team is so much fun to root for. At 17-0 I was worried, yeah. Visions of getting embarrassed in games of any importance in seasons gone by were dancing in my head. But this team is truly different, they are worthy of the praise they get. The defense didn't allow a single point in the 2nd half, and the offense (despite GIVING AWAY 10 points) came alive to startling effect. If Akers makes a chippy and Crabtree simply falls down at the one, there's a good chance this game ended up the way I thought it would. As it was, it was almost even more satisfying. Defense still IS important, so is running the ball. Atlanta's pass offense was breathtaking for most of the game, but being as one--dimensional as they were isn't sustainable. The 49ers were clearly the better team in the 2nd half, but as per usual this year, they had to make it interesting. That play by Bowman at the end was beauty.

WWL can kindly go EFF itself. Super Bowl bound baby! Read that again- SUPER BOWL BOUND! Go Ravens

Domination

From the site that projected the Niners would go 7-9 in 2012. This is a sweet analysis of the O-line in the Packers game:

San Francisco Clinic

Couple things

CK seems cool, but I'm disturbed by the human-simulacrum marketing drone being interviewed in this article. I realize this is the actual world, and I don't begrudge any athlete making a buck, but the jargon is amazing, and soul crushing:

The Business of Colin Kaepernick

Also, Mark Trestman is back. I always (*fucking awlays really?) loved Eddie D's "HE'S GONE!" It wasn't necessarily fair or even professional, but he verbalized the fury fans felt all season.

Finally, Mike Nolan, in his press conference from yesterday, seems to be taking credit for some of the 49ers success. That's hilarious.

An Uncomfortable Position

Been racking my brain all day long today to find a scenario in which the 49ers lose to the Falcons. It's tough. They are 3 1/2 point favorites, a number that will only go up as the week goes along. They're coming off an historic playoff performance against a hated foe and media darling. The team they are playing is this generation's Buffalo Bills. The Falcons are the Packers only not as good. Any way you slice it, the 49ers should handily win this game...which is nerve racking.

You never want to be *that* team. That's the team that loses to the Giants and goes 18-1, or the one who craps the bed at home against the Ravens (that game is on NFLN right now, in the 4th quarter with 2:20 to go. There are still FIFTY MINUTES left in the broadcast slot. Jeebus.). Or the one who watches Gary Anderson miss his only field goal of the year and then loses to Scott Chandler. The team than CANNOT POSSIBLY LOSE THIS GAME almost always loses this game.

The solace comes from the fact that the national media's perplexing vendetta against San Francisco teams is in full force this week. Can you IMAGINE the amount of national jism that would have been spilled if Russell Wilson had the kind of game Kaepernick had this weekend? Not sure why the 49ers are still being held at arm's length, but it's a good thing. The "experts" are still inexplicably picking Atlanta, which is a good thing. I was worried when I saw the Vegas line that things would go overboard and the 49ers would be installed nationally as *that* team, but fortunately it looks like we dodged that bullet. People are reluctant to ever make the 49ers *that* team, because hey-there's always an east coast team we can ignore them for.

That's fine with me. This team never does well when it's *that* team. They lose to the Vikings or Rams when they're *that* team. I don't think they'd ever have a showing like that in the playoffs, but the further they are under the radar, the better.

The 49ers are superior to the Falcons in every way that you can quantify- offense (close, maybe a push), defense (not close), special teams (close), and coaching (not. close.). They should not lose this game. If they lose this game, it will mean there are serious problems that need addressing. It will mean either that somebody got injured, or some aspect of the team dramatically underperformed. They are simply better. That's not a comfortable position to be in. However, thanks to the media's continually leaving this team at arm's length, at least if they lose it won't be because they were *that* team.

1998, What Could Have Been?

Well, sheeeeeeeeeeeeeit. I was all ready to go all sportswriter on you and write about how amazing it would be for the 49ers to travel the road they traveled in 1998, but this time righting history and making up for that travesty of a loss in the Georgia Dome. But then Mike Nolan's defense happened and the Seahawks screwed that all up. The chance to avenge that stupid Sunday night loss will have to suffice.

What an epic collapse that was. If you needed the Atlanta franchise summed up in one game, that was it. So perfect that it was Mike Nolan's defense that fell victim. That's exactly what we saw for years here, and any team that was stupid enough to have him on their HC list hopefully learned a lesson from this. That is a completely unacceptable way to lose a playoff game.

OHHHHH HEY THERE MATT RYAN!!!!!!!!! HOLY SHYTEBALLS! YES!!!!!!

I was writing this as Russell Wilson was being his annoying, dickish self and leading the game-winning TD drive. Then Matt Ryan. Wow. What an incredible game.

So, how about the whole 1998 parallel thing? I'm all for that. Frank Gore needs to not break his leg this time, and we should be golden. Atlanta looked like a bunch of keystone cops today, if Seattle had even competent coaching in the 1st half, they would have won fairly easily. The 49ers have much more than competent coaching. Atlanta are the Packers only worse. That is the kind of team the 49ers were built to beat. In fact, every team remaining in the playoffs are teams the 49ers are built to beat. I feel really really good about this.

Perfect

Just spotted this comment on PFT. Thank you Jim Harbaugh:

Holy Krapernick

Shhhhhhh, Packers fans. Shhhhhhh. You can't say anything after that. You were spotted 7 points and you were completely dismantled in every single phase of this game. 2 times in the same year this team has crushed you- once in your place, once in ours. There's nothing you can say after that. See you next year.

Colin Kaepernick is unbelievable. As much as Aikman wants to blame the Packers' defensive scheme, I think I'll go ahead and say it was Kaepernick more than the defense. He is special. That was an absolutely incredible game to watch.

I really can't stand the fact that even after a dismantling like that, the 49ers are not going to receive proper respect. I know it doesn't mean anything, but I still don't understand why this team gets shoved by the wayside in favor of inferior teams. The 49ers even have a "star" now, and watch them get swept under the rug. It will ALL be "what happened to the Packers?!?" instead of  "whoah, look at the niners".

Meh, who cares. Just imagine how far the 49ers could have gone if they'd signed Peyton. Oh wait.

This Playoff Matchup Oozes...Something

The Packers at Candlestick, in the Divisional Playoffs, after a bye, is not at all something I wanted to see again. This weekend’s game brings the 1995 NFC divisional’s worst memories tumbling back: Adam Walker’s goddamn cast, Fritz Shurmer’s indecipherable smoked glasses, Mike Holmgren’s gaseous smirk, the refs (oh the refs), and the dick sexter with unlimited good fortune. Moreover, the worst: the maddening knowledge that my team was “owned”, and probably would be for some time.

I cannot see another team inspiring burning sports-hate like the 1996-2007 Packers (though the Seahawks do try).