1. Alex Smith resurrects his career and leads the team to a playoff berth.
The 49ers are the "where the hell did THEY come from???" team, and WE are finally the team that gets the endless breathless reports on how they've turned their season around and how great of a story it is to see Smith bounce back from a terrible start to his career.Sunday's impact: A win over the Colts. If the 9ers win on Sunday, it will be because Alex Smith is the real deal. That will get everyone's attention in a right hurry.
Odds of happening: 5%. Let's be real- we're 49er fans. In the 00s, that means we get shit on and like it. No chance we end up being "that" team this year. Though I do love my boy crabs.
2. Alex Smith is merely "meh", and leads the team to another 7-9, 8-8ish type mediocre season. Everything we've seen in the last couple weeks and last couple years: sort of OK play from the defense, "meh" play from the offense, and enough stupid mental and coaching errors to just make them frustratingly close to being successful, and that keeps us coming back for more.
Sunday's impact: a close loss to the Colts. They get down fairly big (think last week), and are able to come back and make it a game, but they're never ACTUALLY in it. We've seen it many, many times before.
Odds of happening: 75%. By far the most likely outcome. I'm rooting for Smith to be sure, but forgive me if the last 4 years of watching this team have pretty much squeezed out any shred of optimism I may have had. Boy, it was fun to watch him on Sunday, but he was playing against vanilla defensive looks and not a guy I like to call "BOB SANDERS".
3. Alex Smith is an unmitigated disaster.
He plays terribly or even gets injured. The season spirals out of control and into a 5-11/6-10ish end. Plus side: we get 2 top 10 picks, thereby destroying our cap space for the near future. Wait, that's not good either.
Sunday's impact: a disastrous blowout loss on the level of the Atlanta game. There is no excuse for that to happen again, and if it does, then we know what we have on our hands- another season of bitter disappointment and disillusionment.
Odds of happening: 20%. I'm not sure I think this team is this bad, but there is definitely that chance floating around in the back of my head. I really think Smith looked excellent on Sunday, vanilla defenses or no, but there's a nagging thing in the back of my mind that makes me think we can't possibly expect anything other than disaster and blood and guts and destruction. Maybe it's the whole "I've been watching this team play football for 4 years" thing.
